Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive?
By Robin Wright
By Robin Wright
Last month,
Boeing signed a landmark agreement with Iran to sell or lease a hundred and
nine passenger jets. The mega-deal, worth at least twenty billion dollars,
would be the largest sale of American goods to the Islamic Republic since the
seizure of the U.S. Embassy, shortly after the 1979 Revolution. Iran Air badly
needs new planes to modernize its fleet, which dates back to the Shah’s era.
Iranians alternately joke and agonize about mechanical problems that plague the
country’s aging aircraft, essential for travel in a country two and a half times
the size of Texas.
The
Boeing sale would mark the next phase in developing a pragmatic and
profitable—if still unofficial—relationship with Iran, after the nuclear deal
completed a year ago today. The fates of both initiatives, however, still face
turbulent rides. The nuclear deal—formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (J.C.P.O.A.)—is fragile, at best. The diplomatic flirtation during
two years of tortuous negotiations has also soured, despite nine meetings
between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif in the past year. The detention of more Iranian-Americans, who were
formally indicted this week, hasn’t helped. Presidential elections in the
United States and Iran complicate the prospects of both the nuclear deal and
the Boeing sale.
In
Iran, a new poll released on Wednesday finds growing disillusionment with the
nuclear deal, the leaders who produced it, and the United States. President
Hassan Rouhani, the charismatic centrist who initiated the diplomacy, is facing
a backlash. He ran, in 2013, on the promise that nuclear diplomacy would lift
sanctions and improve the economy. Almost three-quarters of Iranians polled now
say they have felt no improvements from the deal—and have little or no confidence
that Washington will fulfill its commitments, according to the University of
Maryland and Iranpoll.com.
“Iran
paid a huge price,” Kayhan, the hard-line newspaper, wrote this week to mark
the anniversary. “The public is asking: What has the nuclear deal accomplished
for people’s livelihood and for the dignity of Islamic Iran?”
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